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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."