🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.