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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. However, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

But this year's race is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against five other elite candidates.

This is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still